In an updated “Global Economic Prospects,” the World Bank projected that global economic activity will shrink by 5.2% this year, the deepest recession since a 13.8% global contraction in 1945-46 at the end of World War II.
The 5.2% downturn this year will be the fourth worst global downturn over the past 150 years, exceeded only by the Great Depression of the 1930s and the periods after World War I and World War II when many the economies of many war-torn countries were devastated and the United States and other nations demobilized after massive defense buildups.
The 5.2% estimate for a decline in global output is 7.7 percentage-points more severe than the World Bank’s January estimate that the world economy would grow by a modest 2.5% this year.
For China, the world’s second largest economy, the World Bank forecast growth will slow this year to a barely discernible 1% but rebound to 6.9% in 2021.
For the 19 European countries who use the euro currency, the World Bank projected a drop of 9.1% this year followed by growth of 4% next year.