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Brace yourself: According to estimates compiled by FactSet, analysts predict that earnings for the SP 500 plummeted nearly 45%, which would be the biggest drop since a 69% plunge during the depths of the Great Recession in the fourth quarter of 2008. Revenues are expected to have fallen more than 10%. Retailers, energy companies and industrial firms likely reported the biggest declines in sales and profit.
Financial firms take center stage this week. JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), Goldman Sachs (GS), Bank of America (BAC) and BlackRock (BLK) are just a few of the big banks and asset managers that will post their latest results.
"Now that we are getting through the first full quarter of Covid-19 lockdowns ... the effects of the pandemic and resulting loss of economic activity are starting to show an impact," Mark Doctoroff, managing director and global co-head of the financial institutions group for MUFG, said in an email to CNN Business.
Doctoroff said investors will be keeping a close eye on loan quality — especially after a recent spate of high-profile corporate bankruptcies. Consumers may have struggled to make auto and credit card payments as well, even as many banks have offered mortgage forbearance programs.
But Doctoroff added that there could be some bright spots to bank earnings. Profits from trading desks could be robust, thanks to the surge in stock market volatility. Financial firms may also post solid results from their debt underwriting businesses. Companies have been rushing to issue new bonds as interest rates remain near zero.
Banks won't be the only companies in the earnings spotlight. Pepsi, Delta, Netflix and Dow components Johnson Johnson (JNJ) and UnitedHealth (UNH) are also due to report their latest results.
It seems unlikely that many of these firms will provide much in the way of financial guidance due to the uncertain nature of the economy. For what it's worth, analysts expect the profit picture to improve as the year progresses. And analysts now predict a big rebound next year, with profits expected to rise 12% in the first quarter and nearly 30% for all of 2021.
Hopes for a rapid, pronounced V-shaped recovery in earnings have been one of the main reasons why the overall market has rebounded so quickly from its March lows.
The SP 500 is now down only 1.4% this year. It's possible that the bear market is already over even though the overall economy remains weak and there are worries about another surge of Covid-19 cases in the United States. But the Federal Reserve has helped fuel expectations of a comeback with its trillions of dollars of loan programs.
"What you are looking at over the next 12 months is still a moderate recovery," said Erik Knutzen, chief investment officer of multi-asset for Neuberger Berman, adding that there is a "titanic struggle" in the markets
