The Atlantic hurricane season starts today and senior scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Roger Pulwarty said it will be an above-average hurricane season this year with an anticipated four-seven, three-five category hurricanes.
The season runs from June 1-November 30.
He was speaking at the Caribbean Initiative at the Atlantic Council’s online panel discussion Hurricane readiness: Building climate resilience in the Caribbean. The Atlantic Council is a US-led think tank in the sphere of international affairs.
The panel was composed of Pulwarty, St Kitts and Nevis’ ambassador to the US Jacinth Henry-Martin, the Caribbean Development Bank’s (CDB) acting vice president of operations Therese Turner Jones and co-founder and member of Resilient Earth Capital Stacy Swann.
Barbados’ Minister of Home Affairs, Information and Public Affairs Wilfred A Abrahams also addressed the online audience.
It was hosted by associate director and fellow of the Caribbean Initiative Wazim Mowla.
The web event also took place shortly after the conclusion of the fourth international conference on Small Island Developing States held from May 27-30 in Saint John’s, Antigua and Barbuda.
Pulwarty said scientific agencies were anticipating a hurricane season of about 85 per cent which meant above average.
That would include 17-25 total named storms at more than 39 miles per hour, 11 that would be 75 miles an hour higher and four-seven, three-five category hurricanes stronger than 110 miles an hour.
“That becomes really critical simply because the reason we can say that is because we know that the background ocean heat content in the Atlantic is much warmer than normal. We are about to see some more active West African Monsoon that helps launch easterly waves that actually structure some of the stronger storms.
[caption id="attachment_1086986" align="alignnone" width="1024"] A man hold his pet dog above the crashing waves at Maracas Bay on Friday, as he, along with thousands of beachgoers enjoy the sea a day before the start of the hurricane season on June 1. - ROGER JACOB[/caption]
“The trades are lighter. In order words, the storms get a chance to form. And, of course, critically as everyone knows, we have the movement from El Nino event to a La Nina event and what that means is that all of those conditions are favoured for this higher number of tropical storms…,” Pulwarty said.
He added that the region was in the midst of one of the most severe droughts on record as well.
“The other analogous year to this was 2010, in which the region had one of its most severe droughts then had three years of extremely active storms. Basically, the hurricane seasons of 10, 11 and 12 turned out to be three of the most active years on record: 19 storms each.”
The discussion centred on how regional governments, institutions and people could adapt to these extremes in weather. The water from these hurricanes could not be stored and the islands were facing water issues as well.
For Henry-Martin, cl
