UWI political scientist Dr Bishnu Ragoonath says the death of PNM D'Abadie/O'Meara MP Lisa Morris-Julian on December 16 does not mean there will be a by-election in the constituency.
Ragoonath added that the PNM's majority in Parliament was not threatened, nor should the MP's death affect the time when the Prime Minister calls the general election.
Morris-Julian and two of her children died in an early-morning fire at their Arima home on December 16.
In an interview with Newsday, Ragoonath said, "There can be no by-election at this point in time. We have entered into the fifth year of the parliamentary term and we cannot have a by-election in the fifth year."
He added this is outlined in the law.
Ragoonath said, "The PNM still has a majority in the Parliament. They are now down to 21. The UNC is still at 19. So nothing really changes that much."
Ragoonath added that in a situation where two PNM MPs were absent from a sitting of a House, Speaker Bridgid Annisette-George has a casting vote under the standing orders should the government and opposition be deadlocked at 19-19 on any piece of legislation which requires a simple majority for passage.
In the case of special-majority legislation, the PNM must get the support of some UNC MPs to pass it.
Even when the PNM had the 22 MPs in the House who included Morris-Julian, it found it difficult to get the UNC's support to pass special-majority legislation.
The PNM will have to re-open screening for D'Abadie/O'Meara, since Morris-Julian had been chosen to stand for re-election there.
Ragoonath expected the party will show respect and decency to allow the constituency executive time to mourn Morris-Julian's death before calling on it to submit new nominations.
He said re-screening for D'Abadie/O'Meara will not change whatever plan Dr Rowley has for calling the election.
"The fact of the matter is that the PNM has not completed their screening."
Ragoonath said the party still has to screen nominees for some nine constituencies .
He could not say whether Rowley would consider a Cabinet reshuffle to appoint another PNM MP or senator to take up Morris-Julian's post in the Education Ministry.
Her death leaves Education Minister Dr Nyan Gadsby-Dolly solely at the helm of the ministry.
Ragoonath said, "I can't speak for the Prime Minister as to what would be his thinking."
He added that only Rowley could determine whether Gadsby-Dolly will need help in the ministry before the election takes place.
What the Constitution says:
The Constitution caters for the tenure of an elected member of the House of Representatives to run for five years from the date of election.
A by-election can only be triggered in the first four years of an MP's tenure.
This is outlined in Section 69(3), which states, "Where a vacancy occurs in the House of Representatives within the first four years of the life of the Parliament a by-election shall be held to fill such vacancy not later than 90 days from the date of the announcement by the Speaker of the vacancy.
