guest column:Cristiano d’Orsi IN early November, Ethiopian prime minister Abiy Ahmed launched a military offensive against forces of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front in the northern Ethiopian region of Tigray. This came after months of rising tensions between the front and the Abiy administration. The conflict threatens to have wide implications for the region, which has been trying to manage unresolved refugee crises for over a decade. The fighting has already prompted tens of thousands of people to flee to safety, raising concerns about a humanitarian crisis. Some have left Tigray and crossed the border into Sudan. Others have gone to other regions in Ethiopia. Over the past decade, war and famine in Ethiopia, Sudan and Eritrea have displaced hundreds of thousands of people. Throughout the past decade Sudan and Eritrea have been among the top 10 source countries for cross-border displacement. Eritrea has historically produced the highest number of refugees. Ethiopia was hosting 733 125 refugees by the end of 2019. It also has one of the largest populations of internally displaced people in Africa — more than 1,8 million this year. And in 2019 Ethiopia had the largest number of registered unaccompanied and separated children in the world. Ethiopia has a long history of hosting refugees and maintains an open-door asylum policy. But most of its refugees are accommodated in 26 camps with limited services and opportunities. They depend largely on humanitarian assistance. Sudan also has a tradition of hosting refugees. For decades, it has kept its doors open to people fleeing war, hunger and hardship. At the same time, hundreds of thousands of Sudanese have sought refuge elsewhere and there are 2,1 million internally displaced people in Sudan. In the first half of this year, there were 39 000 new displacements associated with conflict and violence. The conflict in Tigray is forcing people to cross borders, or to seek refuge elsewhere in their own country. Refugee crisis The latest estimates are that 27 000 Ethiopians have journeyed to Sudan through the Hamdayet border in Kassala State, Lugdi in Gedaref State and further south at the Aderafi border. Women, men and children have been crossing the border at the rate of 4 000 per day since November 10, rapidly overwhelming the humanitarian response capacity on the ground. The United Nations refugee agency is warning that a humanitarian crisis is unfolding. This is the worst influx into Sudan in 20 years, since about 80 000 Eritrean refugees arrived in 2000 to escape their country’s war with Ethiopia. Sudan’s 1,1 million refugees live in camps, rural out-of-camp settlements, and urban areas. Over half of those living in the country’s 21 camps were born there. About 70% live outside camps in about 100 settlements across the country. Some are large collective self-settlements where thousands of refugees live in “camp-like” areas adjacent to reception centres. There are also smaller self-settlements where refugees have integrated with host communities. Many out-of-camp settl