THE December 6 Tobago House of Assembly (THA) election is too close to call, according to a North American Caribbean Teachers Association (NACTA) poll.
The survey, which was revealed on Sunday, showed the incumbent People’s National Movement (PNM) slightly ahead of the Progressive Democratic Patriots (PDP).
However, NACTA said the outcome of the election is unpredictable.
NACTA was heavily criticised earlier this year after its poll of the January 25 election had the PNM leading in nine electoral districts, and comfortably ahead in seven of them. It said two seats were too close to call, but a clean sweep of all 12 seats was not beyond the realm of possibilities. The election ended in an unprecedented six-six tie between the PNM and PDP.
NACTA’s latest poll said “either party can win a majority of the seats of the 15-member assembly.”
It gave the independents no chance of winning a seat, and failed to mention the Innovative Democratic Alliance led by former PNM member Dr Denise Tsoiafatt Angus.
Unlike January, this election will feature 15 seats after the electoral boundaries were adjusted to prevent another deadlock.
The latest survey interviewed “dozens of voters in each constituency.”
The main issues determining how people vote are: crime, roads, health and covid, the domestic airbridge, transportation costs of goods, agricultural neglect, drugs, good governance, among others.
The poll said Chief Secretary Ancil Dennis has a job performance approval rating of 54 per cent to PDP deputy leader Farley Augustine’s 48 per cent. Dennis is also the most popular of all the candidates seeking a seat with the highest voter opinion support of 56 per cent from Buccoo/Mt. Pleasant with some five per cent voters still undecided.
NACTA said the PNM has a slight lead in popular support that is a statistical tie.
Based on the trends of the findings, with less than a week to go before voting, it said neither party has solid leads in eight seats to win control of the house. Six closely-fought seats will determine the outcome of the THA.
The poll showed PNM holding strong leads in Bagatelle/Bacolet, Buccoo/Mt Pleasant, Darrel Spring/Whim, Plymouth/Black Rock, and Signal Hill/Patience Hill. The PNM also has a comfortable lead in Scarborough/Mt Grace but within the poll’s margin of error.
The PDP has strong leads in Belle Gardens/Glamorgan, Bethel/New Grange, Parlatuvier/L’anse Fourmi/Speyside, and Roxborough/Argyle. The PDP also has a comfortable lead in Bethesda/Les Coteau but within the poll’s margin of error. This makes it a 5-4 or 6-5 PNM lead. The other four seats – Bon Accord/Crown Point, Lambeau/Lowlands, Mason Hall/Moriah, Mt St George/Goodwood – are neck and neck and can go either way.
NACTA said the winner would be decided based on whichever party has the most effective election day machinery to mobilise supporters to come out.
It said the PNM enjoys an advantage of incumbency and resources.
Augustine: NACTA poll means PDP in front
Responding to the NACTA poll on Sunday, Augustine said h
