Politically, however, Thursday was a pretty darn good day for Trump -- as it cemented the fact that the public isn't going to get a look at his tax returns before the November election. The court rejected the US House's attempt to get a look at Trump taxes, which would have ensured they would have leaked publicly and, even in the case of the New York grand jury, the court remanded it back to a lower court -- meaning that Trump isn't giving his financial records to anyone just yet.
These twin rulings avoid an election doomsday scenario for Trump: The public release of a detailed look at his financial history before he faces voters for a second time. Trump is -- and will remain -- the lone major party presidential candidate (or president) to release zero past tax returns. (Joe Biden released his 2017 and 2018 tax returns last summer.) Which in the live-to-fight-another-day worldview of Trump is a win. Trump has long used the legal system to delay unsavory outcomes for him. This is that.
If that seems counterintuitive, it's largely because of the complicated nature of the two cases that the court ruled on Thursday. The cases were similar, but not the same. And they carried differing stakes for Trump.
In the New York case -- Trump v. Vance -- the subpoena of the President's tax returns was specifically regarding an ongoing grand jury investigation looking into whether Trump or the Trump Organization violated state laws in connection with hush money payments made to two women (Karen McDougal and Stormy Daniels) during the run-up to the 2016 election. Both women alleged that Trump had conducted extramarital affairs with them. The investigation has also looked into whether business records filed with the state were falsified and if any tax laws were violated, CNN has reported. The Court ruled that Trump was not covered by presidential immunity, and therefore, had to turn over the subpoenaed documents -- although they remanded the case, meaning that the turn-over won't happen immediately. And even if Manhattan District Attorney Cyrus Vance does eventually get the tax records, which now seems very likely, it will be in the context of a grand jury investigation. And it's a very big no-no to leak grand jury evidence.
In the Congress case -- Trump v. Mazars --- the issue was whether members of Congress had the right to see Trump's taxes and financial documents in pursuit of an investigation into whether conflict-of-interest and disclosure laws needed to be amended or updated. Had the Court ruled in favor of Congress, the details of Trump's financial history would have definitely been made public -- since Congress leaking things is, um, a practice as old as time itself.
So, what the Court did is make it very likely that a grand jury may, at some point, see Trump's tax history. And that Congress won't -- at least no time soon.
Add it all up then and that's a very good thing for Trump, who has fought tooth-and-nail for years not to let the public see any details of his past financial life.
