Dutch disease is an economic illness that is easy to catch, but almost impossible to cure.

It refers to the correlation between a boom in a nation’s natural resources which could result in economic prosperity, but at the cost of growth in other sectors in a nation’s economy.

TT has been, for more than a century, enjoying the fruits and benefits of a growing oil and gas industry, which experienced a series of oil booms and busts since TT’s independence in 1962. But while the energy sector flourished other industries such as tourism and manufacturing have fallen by the wayside, creating the perfect circumstances for this economic phenomenon.

TT was diagnosed with this disease by Prof Roger Hosein in his lecture at the University of the West Indies on April 24, days before the April 28 general election.

The cure, he suggested, would involve a complete rethink of TT’s fiscal policies, that would focus on developing manufacturing and tourism, rather than continuing to breathe life into a now dying energy sector.

He said policy makers need to put a focus on earning foreign exchange to face the “very rough” outlook coming in the medium term.

Non-energy fiscal imbalance

Hosein pointed out what many have in the past few years – that TT is heavily dependent on the revenue from its energy sector, while its non-energy fiscal balance remains in the negative.

He noted that TT’s non-energy trade balance averages to about ­– $23 billion. He said manufacturing sector employment has also decreased significantly over the years, despite having ten times the output of the agricultural sector.

Factors such as crime have also contributed to flight in human and fiscal capital.

“Once people feel threatened (by crime) they will leave. We don’t want our young, bright students leaving and not coming back because we would lose the primary school and secondary school education and all the money that we spent on them.”

He also said as far as tourism is concerned, data suggested that there was a gap in TT’s tourism sector when compared to other countries in the region who depend on tourism for revenue.

[caption id="attachment_1152548" align="alignnone" width="1024"] A forklift operator moves a crate of packaged water to a storage area at the manufacturing facility of Blue Waters Products Ltd in Orange Grove, Tacarigua on January 13. - File photo by Faith Ayoung[/caption]

“If you look at the data, from 1999 to 2024, you will see, as compared to other countries, our arrival traffic has not done so well.”

According to Tourismanalytics.com TT saw 97,901 visitors for the first quarter of 2025. Countries such as Curacao saw 215,366 visitors.

Hosein said in order for TT to break the Dutch "fever" caused by a dependence on a declining energy sector, TT will have to focus on growing its manufacturing and tourism sectors significantly.

“I am standing here today and I don’t think we have a choice,” he said. “We are at a point that unless we push tourism inflows from remittances in relation to other countries we will be way