DEAR President Emmerson Mnangagwa, BY JASMINE OPPERMAN I write this article addressing you as the immediate past chairperson of the Sadc Organ on Politics, Defence and Security. Your Excellency, I also am addressing you as a neighbour to a country which has been troubled by terrorism, wherein your country Zimbabwe has interests. This year, as the insurgency in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado province has intensified, calls for regional intervention have grown louder. This is more than just talk: the Southern African Development Community (Sadc) is actively exploring ways to intervene, including some kind of military response. A virtual meeting of relevant Sadc committees on June 25-26 resulted in some progress. This included, according to sources, commitment from some countries for boots on the ground, but an overall strategy has not been locked down. Your Excellency, the process of doing so is frustrated by the reluctance of some countries to get involved; practical realities, such as who will fund an intervention; and Mozambique’s determination to remain “in charge” of the situation. There is no doubt that some kind of intervention is necessary, to prevent the situation from spiralling out of control. But caution is required. Walking in blindly — without understanding the complexities at play, and without addressing some of the socio-economic factors that underpin and exacerbate the violence — could make the situation even worse. A complex insurgency Your Excellency, the insurgency in Cabo Delgado, a coastal province in northern Mozambique, began in 2017 with an attack on a police station in the town of Mocimboa da Praia. Since then, the insurgency has gone from strength to strength, even though little is known about its motivations or intent. The insurgents go by the name Ahlu Sunnah Wal Jama, and have reportedly pledged allegiance to the Islamic State. This year, both the frequency and intensity of attacks have increased, and the insurgents have gained access to more sophisticated weaponry. They are yet to attempt to set up any kind of parallel governance structure, but are showing sufficient sophistication to take on Mozambique’s security forces directly. They have also demonstrated the ability to briefly occupy towns such as Mocimboa da Praia and Macomia. Your Excellency, the response from Mozambique’s security forces has been characterised by coercive tactics and human rights abuses, which risks entrenching local grievances against the State. This is a challenge for any potential regional intervention: a close alignment with the Mozambican State could make it difficult to earn trust among affected communities, which is essential for any kind of peacekeeping effort. A recent MediaFax report noted that the Mozambican government’s hardline response had left young men in Cabo Delgado feeling sympathetic to the insurgents; they are more likely to support the insurgency in response to human rights violations by the State than out of any ideological conviction. Your Excellency, Sadc and member countries risk implicating th