Such Democratic groupthink goes as follows: the Covid-19 pandemic has killed more than 130,000 Americans and shows no signs of letting up; the economy has been plunged into the deepest recession in decades; and amid ongoing protests in the aftermath of George Floyd's death, Democrats are fired up and ready to vote as never before.
Moreover, a diverse array of national polls couldn't be clearer: Trump is in deep trouble nationally -- with Joe Biden leading him by double digits.
Democratic strategists seem to believe this means that Biden has successfully cut into the President's support among key parts of his political coalition: white voters, suburban voters, independents and voters who are middle aged and older. And the latest polling shows that even GOP strongholds like Georgia and Texas could be in play this fall.
It seems Democrats are all too keen on taking a victory lap before they pass the checkered flag.
Those declaring Trump politically finished should recall the words attributed to the famous American novelist Mark Twain. As the story goes, Twain's death was rumored when his cousin fell ill and reporters couldn't locate him while touring in Europe. Upon learning of his supposed demise, Twain, according to his biographer Albert Bigelow Paine, told a reporter that "the report of my death has been grossly exaggerated."
As Paine tells it, the rumor appeared to emerge because Twain's cousin, who shared his legal surname of Clements, fell ill and papers were reporting that Twain was possibly dying. The chattering classes may be in for a nasty November surprise. There are lots of reasons to suspect that Donald Trump may be the Mark Twain of American politics -- in that reports of his political demise may be grossly exaggerated.
Like a modern-day street magician, Trump keeps pulling out new tricks to stymie Democrats at the polls when they least expect it -- as he did this past May when Republicans took back a Congressional seat in deep blue California, the first time the GOP had gained a seat in the state in 22 years.
Let us be clear: We are political consultants who have spent the better part of the last 20 years working to get scores of Democrats elected across America. It gives us no great joy to think about Trump getting a second term, but here is some of what keeps us awake at night:
Americans usually don't fire sitting presidents
Only three sitting US Presidents have been fired in the last 75 years, and that number could easily have been only one. After pardoning Richard Nixon, President Gerald Ford went on lose to Jimmy Carter by a squeaker. Carter barely won Wisconsin and Ohio and a switch of 144,384 votes in New York would have reelected Ford.
In 1992, Bill Clinton beat George Bush, winning less than half the popular vote (43%), with 19% going to Independent Ross Perot -- a plurality, but not a majority. Since the 1930s, only Ronald Reagan was able to successfully unseat an incumbent president and beat him by a healthy margin -- as a ru
