THE Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) said Government's covid19 vaccination programme may not achieve its target of vaccinating 72 per cent of the population on time, and this could affect the pace of fully reopening the economy.
In its country report on Trinidad and Tobago on July 27, the EIU said in the coming months, Government will focus on rolling out covid19 vaccines while keeping some mobility restrictions in place, as vaccine doses are still limited.
"The country's vaccination strategy depends heavily on the WHO (World Health Organization)-led Covax facility, a multilateral pooling mechanism for the equitable distribution of covid19 vaccines."
The EIU said Government has already received 33,600 doses from Covax, will receive 72,000 more (from Covax) by September and bilateral donors will also provide vaccines. But it said, "At the current pace, the authorities are unlikely to reach their goal of vaccinating 72 per cent of the population by year end."
The EIU said the vaccination programme could continue until the end of 2022 and implementation of Government's Road Map to Recovery strategy, launched last May, was important in undertaking a post-pandemic recovery
The EIU said the plan envisages short-term measures such as increasing the social safety net for the most vulnerable citizens while, over the medium term, improving the efficiency of both state and private bureaucracy by increasing investment in human capital and digital technology.
The EIU was optimistic the plan would "boost job growth through schemes that support innovation and entrepreneurship."
It said, "The economic recovery from the covid19 crisis will be slow and gradual. We forecast that real GDP will not return to 2019 levels until 2024, and expect real GDP growth to average 1.9 per cent in 2021- 25."
Its projections "assume that policy uncertainties will gradually wane, allowing for modest improvements in the business environment."
The EIU expected "output growth for LNG and petrochemicals to increase from end 2021 as constraints on the gas supply ease."
After noting that most of TT's gas exports go to Latin American markets, the EIU saidthese countries will continue to be significant markets, but their importance will wane as they increase their own local gas supplies.
The EIU also said, "A recovery in gas output will gradually lift downstream industries." Manufacturing-export activities, it continued, will remain constrained by weak demand from the English- speaking Caribbean (the sector's largest export market). The EIU also projected modest recoveries in the construction sector, locally oriented manufacturing and distribution, gradually gaining traction in 2021 and moving forward.
A a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders over the last 60 years, the EIU is based in London, New York, Hong Kong and Geneva.
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